颜春明：打响人类与共同敌人“新冠病毒”的战役
欧洲商报记者：马丽梅
颜春明：中国国家中医药管理局授牌的“中国——葡萄牙中医药中心”的负责人。在葡萄牙从事临床工作16年，拥有葡萄牙国家卫生部门颁发的中医师执业证书合法执业。
《欧洲商报》：武汉发生新冠肺炎大爆发至今，已经超过两个月了。目前武汉初步决定4月8号全面开放，您觉得这个举措带来的风险是可控的吗?
颜春明：目前，国内采取的根据各地不同的具体的情况，有序地逐步解封措施，并继续坚持高度戒备的预防措施，只要坚持早发现、早报告、早隔离、早治疗的原则，我认为是可以的。特别是在疫情爆发时，受习近平总书记和委托，李克强总理先后都亲自到武汉考察和指导疫情防控工作，体现了国家和党对人民群众生命安全的重视。这也加强了我对这个可控性有信心的信念。
《欧洲商报》：欧洲最早爆发大规模疫情的国家应该是意大利，为什么会在这里？有什么专业的评判？意大利死亡率最高，德国死亡率相对低，是因为医疗条件先进与落后的关系吗？
颜春明：意大利早期发现的病例，应都是属于输入病例，当地政府和民众未予以及时的重视才导致今天的局面。再就是相对于德国而言，意大利的医疗水平肯定不如德国。但这里我们有个概念需要澄清，医疗水平不代表公共卫生水平，也就是说，某个国家可能对于一些常见疾病的治疗水平上在国际名列前茅，但是对于应对这种突发公共卫生事件的能力不一定就强。
《欧洲商报》：疫情发展速度很快，为什么欧洲国家很少能从之前的武汉的防疫过程中吸取经验，是因为观念或什么原因？
颜春明：关于为什么没有吸取武汉教训这一点，我觉得可能有很多深层的原因：
第一点，是政治体制的不同。毫无疑问，这次疫情的控制，根本上得益于中国的政治制度优势。政府采取了一系列有力的措施，得到了地方和各级政府的积极配合，全社会有一种共同的凝聚力，大家团结一心、众志成城才能取得胜利。
第二点，欧洲整体行政机构的效率低下，这一点，是整体上比中国要低很多。像一些基建的推进，退休制度的改革，医疗制度的改革等等，往往被程序拖成无限期。针对这种突发事件的应对，他们虽然一定程度上会加速，但是远赶不及突发事件恶化的速度快，大都是眼睁睁的看着机会流失。
第三点，从医疗专业人士的角度来看，在中国出现病例到大规模爆发的过程中，欧洲的医疗人员也好，病毒专家也好，都是抱着隔案观火的态度在对待。我一月初从国内回欧洲时，在法兰克福等口岸就发现他们根本没有采取任何防疫措施，错过了最好的窗口期。然后有些专家在缺乏直接证据和经验的情况下，仅凭理论和猜测就在公共媒体发表言论，甚至表述说Covid-19比季节性流感还安全，这多多少少影响了民众对病毒的判断。
第四点，是专业人士和各国民众对疫情及各国自身公卫水平的误判。他们没有积极借鉴中国的经验，在发病之初，他们高估了自己国家的专业水平，反过来来说，他们对中国当今医疗水平的误判。高估自身，低估中国，盲目自信，这是导致悲剧的重要原因之一。
第五点，就是在治疗手段上，中国积极采取了中西医结合的治疗方式，这是中国方案的一个优势。中国在长期的历史发展过程中，经历了多次大型瘟疫，都是依靠中医治疗，积累了丰富的经验，证明了其有效性，这次再次予以了证明。而在欧洲，作为中医治疗重要手段之一的中药治疗，受制于欧洲法律的限制，基本无法开展，不说是个很大的遗憾。这就像一个人走路，本来可以两条路走，现在被绑住了一条路，必然寸步难行。
《欧洲商报》：您觉得中国在两个月零之间的努力有了今天战疫的成果，可以打几分？按您的估计意大利要多久才能平息疫情？欧洲的未来趋势会如何？
颜春明：中国这次在应对新冠疫情的表现，我觉得可以打95分；剩下的5分是客观原因造成的结果，出现的是新病毒，缺乏认识，是边研究边治疗，中国等于是为全世界抗疫进行了第一步的“临床试验”，出现了一定的生命财产损失。可惜的是，其它国家没有珍惜借鉴中国的宝贵经验，现在虽然已经开始向中国学习了，但是局面已经非常糟了。不过亡羊补牢，总比什么都不做都好。意大利作为欧洲的“震央”，现在也采取了严格的隔离措施，我预估最乐观可能也要四月底才会出现本质上的转折点。而欧洲其它国家，像西班牙，也没比意大利好多少，其它国家有好有坏。可以这样说吧，整个欧洲的拐点还没有到来，整体还在恶化中，期待四月底出现真正的拐点。
《欧洲商报》：面对疫情我们要如何保护自己？
颜春明：我的建议是所有人都能做到居家自我隔离，自我保护，减少外出，有条件的可以适当服用一些东西增强免疫力。期待着疫情早点结束。
《欧洲商报》：最后，关于病毒的来源众说纷坛，而好像根本无法找出“零号病人”，如果没法找出根源，新冠病毒能够被彻底消灭吗？如果不能彻底消灭，我们怎么办？
颜春明：关于病毒的来源，我觉得随着时间的推移，可能会有真相出现。军运会期间，美国5例“疟疾”患者在武汉金银潭医院就诊，根据世界卫生官方网站的信息：“疟疾是一种由寄生虫引起的威胁生命的疾病，通过受感染的雌蚊叮咬传至人类”，而在当时，武汉的天气应该是极少有蚊子的，更何况是带疟原虫的蚊子呢？更有趣的是，在2月份就有专家表示可以用治疗疟疾的氯喹来治疗Covid-19，美国总统甚至在3月20日的白宫每日疫情通报会上直接表示：抗疟药可以治疗新冠。目前法国法国生物学家迪迪埃·拉乌尔特领导的团队应用氯喹治疗新冠病毒临床测试也显示有一定效果。所以这个有趣的联系：“5名在武汉患疟疾美军大兵——氯喹可治疗疟疾——氯喹也可能可以用来治疗Covid-19”，仔细想想，我们好像看到了某种真相。如果能找到更多的临床资料，也就能找到真正的源头了。
当然，当前更紧要的是全球团结起来共同应对，用“第三次世界大战”来概括这次疫情一点也不为过，只不过这次对立的双方是人类和共同敌人“新冠病毒”。关于病毒的最终结局，有不同观点，有人认为夏天前应该会消失，也有人认为可能要持续一到两年，我更倾向于今年夏天消失这个判断。因为2003年的萨斯病毒也是冠状病毒的一种，当年是在五月天气热起来就消失了；如果出现万一情况，也就是继续持续下去，那我们可以期待说进入夏天北半球先消失，再集中兵力绞杀还在南半球的的新冠病毒，也相对容易。
别忘了，大部分人还是居住在北半球，再何况新冠疫苗已经开始进入了临床试验阶段。这个规律有个简单的比喻，也许更容易理解，那就是在自然条件下，“冬天长不出西瓜”，逃不了这个规律；世界万物规律，主要还是照常态发展，极少事物是违背常态发展的。所以我保持着乐观的态度，人类最终会战胜病毒。
The war of mankind and enemy Covid-19
Q&A
Reporter: Ma Limei
(caption: Yan Chunming and Hof Sue, the winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize in biology or medicine)
Yan Chunming is the director of the “China-Portugal Chinese Medicine Centre” awarded by the national administration of traditional Chinese medicine of China. He has been engaged in clinical work in Portugal for 16 years and has obtained the certificate of practising Chinese medicine doctor issued by the Portuguese national health department.
European Commerical News: It has been more than two months since the outbreak of COVID 19 in Wuhan. At present, Wuhan has preliminarily decided to fully open on April 8th. Do you think the risks brought by this move are controllable?
Yan Chunming: According to the specific situation of different places in China, the measures of unsealing are taken step by step in an orderly manner, and we still adhere to the precautionary measures of the high alert. As long as we stick to the principles of early detection, early report, early isolation and early treatment, I reckon it is controllable. Especially during the outbreak of the epidemic, both Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang have gone to Wuhan to inspect and guide the prevention and control of the epidemic in person, which shows that the state and the party attach great importance to the safety of people’s lives. It also reinforced my belief in this controllability.
European Commerical News: The first country in Europe to have a major outbreak is Italy. Why is it here? What are the professional judgments? Italy has the highest death rate and Germany has a relatively low death rate. Is it because of the relationship between advanced and backward medical conditions?
Yan Chunming: All the early cases found in Italy should be imported cases. The local government and people did not pay attention in time, which led to the current situation. Moreover, compared with Germany, the medical level of Italy is certainly not as good as Germany. But here we have a concept that needs to be clarified, the medical level does not represent the level of public health, that is, a country may be among the best in the world for the treatment of some common diseases, but it does not necessarily have a strong ability to deal with such public health emergencies.
European Commerical News: The epidemic is developing very fast. Why do European countries seldom learn from previous epidemic prevention in Wuhan?
Yan Chunming: I think there may be some deep reasons why they didn’t learn from Wuhan.
The first is the difference in the political system. There is no doubt that the control of this outbreak is fundamentally due to the advantages of China’s political system. The government has adopted a series of effective measures, which have been actively coordinated by local governments and governments at all levels. The whole society has a common sense of cohesion.
Secondly, Europe’s overall administrative inefficiency is much lower than in China. Some infrastructure initiatives, retirement reform, health reform, etc., are often delayed indefinitely. In response to such emergencies, although they will speed up to a certain extent, they will not be able to catch up with the rate of deterioration of the emergency.
Thirdly, from the perspective of medical professionals, both European medical staff and virus experts have taken a case-by-case approach. When I returned to Europe in early January, I found at ports such as Frankfurt that they had not taken any preventive measures at all and had missed the best window of prevention. Then, in the absence of direct evidence and experience, some experts made comments in the public media based on theories and even stated that Covid-19 was safer than seasonal influenza, which more or less affected people’s judgment of the virus.
Fourthly, people did not earn from China’s experience. At the beginning of the disease, they overestimated their own country’s professional level, but instead, they misjudged China’s current medical level. Being overestimating and being blindly self-confident is one of the major causes of the tragedy.
Fifthly, in terms of treatment, China has actively adopted a combination of traditional Chinese and western medicine, which is an advantage. In the long course of historical development, China has experienced many large plagues, all of which rely on the treatment of traditional Chinese medicine. The rich experience has proved its effectiveness. In Europe, Chinese medicine treatment subject to the restrictions of European laws, so basically it can not be carried out.
European Commerical News: What do you think about China’s efforts in the two months? How long do you think it will take to stop the outbreak in Italy? What is the future of Europe?
Yan Chunming: I think we can score 95 points for China’s response to the new epidemic. The remaining 5 points are the result of objective causes, such as the emergence of a new virus and the lack of understanding. China has carried out the first step of “clinical trials” for the whole world to fight the epidemic, resulting in a certain loss of life and property.
Unfortunately, other countries have not cherished valuable experience from China. Although they have started to learn from China, the situation is very bad. But better late than never. Italy, the epicentre of Europe, is now in strict quarantine, and I don’t expect a fundamental turning point to appear until the end of April at best. The rest of Europe, like Spain, is no better than Italy. It is fair to say that the turning point for the whole of Europe is not yet reached.
European Commerical News: How can we protect ourselves against the epidemic?
Yan Chunming: My suggestion is that all people self-isolating at home and less going out. It is appropriate to take some things to enhance immunity.
European Commerical News: Finally, there is a lot of debate about the origin of the virus, and it seems that it is impossible to find patient zero. If the root cause cannot be found, can the coronavirus be completely eliminated? If we can’t wipe it out, what are we going to do?
Yan Chunming: As for the origin of the virus, I think the truth may emerge over time. 5 American patients with “malaria” got treatment in Wuhan, according to world health official website: “Malaria is a life-threatening disease caused by the parasite, through infected mosquito bites to mankind”, but at the time, Wuhan should have very few mosquitoes, let alone bring malaria mosquitoes?
More interestingly, in February, experts suggested that chloroquine could be used to treat Covid-19, and the US President even stated directly at the White House daily briefing on the situation on March 20 that antimalarial drugs could treat the Covid-19. Now a team led by a French biologist has also shown some results in clinical tests of coronavirus treated with chloroquine. If we can find more clinical data, we can find the real origin.
Of course, what is more urgent now is for the world to come together in a common response. “world war iii” is not an overstatement to describe this outbreak, except this time it is humanity and a common enemy, “novel coronavirus”.
As for the final outcome of the virus, there are different opinions. Some people think it should disappear before the summer, while others think it may last for one or two years. I prefer it would to disappear this summer. Because SARS was also a coronavirus in 2003, the weather got hot in May and the virus disappeared; The new vaccine is already in clinical trials. I remain optimistic that humans will eventually overcome the virus.